[c22]

There likely exists a larger stockpile of fairly well-engineered manually driven cars than there were buggies during the advent of the automobile. This existing stock will likely buffer the robotic revolution of our roads somewhat. Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile.

[toomuchtodo]

> Also, I think the convenience delta from self-driven car to "driverless" car is smaller than that from keeping living horses to regular maintenance of an automobile.

The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history. Compound that with the 65+ cohort aging quickly, and older drivers being dangerous drivers (lower reaction time).

It's not a convenience delta. Its an experience and safety delta. We are talking tens of billions (if not more) of dollars in savings from taking the human out of the loop.

[tclmeelmo]

> The number of teenagers with driver's licenses is the lowest in history.

The value of such a statistic is questionable given that the minimum age for a license has increased of late.

[toomuchtodo]

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2016/01/19/drivers-...

http://time.com/money/4185441/millennials-drivers-licenses-g...

http://www.npr.org/2016/02/11/466178523/like-millennials-mor...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2014/10/14/the-m...

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/USA-Update/2016/0120/Why-are-Mi...

[tclmeelmo]

From your first link: "Getting a driver's license after turning 16 years old has become a lengthier process in recent years, as regulators instituted more safety hurdles. That has also led to a sharp decline in teenagers who are driving."

That said, this is going sideways because I didn't make a complete and clear post originally. Never mind.