[davemel37]

> In Asia its like 1998

I can't speak such a broad generalization, but I noticed a learning curve/ trajectory of how people perceive opportunity online and the ideas they get excited about. It seems to depend when someone truly dove into internet and used it for everyday needs.

I only have anecdotal evidence to this, but I really think that most follow are following the same trajectory/learning curve about opportunity online and people are currently in place across that curve. We still have fewer than half the world online, and billions who are using the internet today the way we used it in 1994.

This is my theory for why old school domainers stopped buying domain names for a premium in 2007, and yet there are still people today paying a ridiculous amount of money for domain names, and thousands more investing in them like it's still a gold rush. That gravy train seemed to dry up in the last decade, yet somehow new people enter the market and fall in love. I bet there are still penny auctions making money and daily deal sites emerging, despite those trends passing years and years ago.

Those on the cutting edge need to remember that they don't reflect the bulk of the world, there is lagging opportunity for at least a decade in every space that seems to be owned.

[vonklaus]

I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000 right now so I could get what I paid out of it at least. The point I am trying to make is that things adopt their real value, domains for an analogy are like real estate.

SF/SV/NYC/LON are very desirable areas and it takes a long time to build out that infrastructure. It is a supply/demand mismatch. Domains were these nebulous things no one understood but if you bought one, it was worth way more than you paid for it. However, JET.com and Genius.com were quite expensive because they are pretty desirable domains, nerdy.com just went for 25K. Supply has gone up so the localpetstores.co.com domains aren'rt really worth anything.

On balance, technology companies-- companies that are leveraging technology well and constantly improve as part of their business, will continue to do well. However, if you define technology as, with a computer then that sector is as descriptive as American or European. Companies in leveraging technology well:

Alphabet

Apple

FB (oculus)

Amazon

Intel

Companies often referred to as "technology companies"

IBM

Twitter

LinkedIn

GE

If you look at the highlevel descriptors, both baskets are fairly comparable, and that is the trap!.

Amazon has a globally unified distribution for digital media, technology applications, physical things, and a marketplace.

Alphabet.

Facebook has 1Billion users and owns much of the messaging. It is how people organize social search. They also are able to marry the phone messaging and image/moments, with the online community of the computer and soon bridge the devide to gaming and a truly addictive world of VR.

Intel is the world leader in building the thing every one of those companies runs on.

etc.

The mismatch between value and perceived value is becoming more evident. So it is, to quote our guy Charlie D, both the best of times and rthe worst of times, some have much infront of them and some have nothing, and the pundits will insist that it is a superlative of this or that, when in reality it is sameness: think hard, be more correct and capitalize on your view of the future.

edit: just to clarify, I plan on using the domain lest anyone think I am a squatter. Although, I do have a tendency to get sidetracked/change gears so I was using that as an analogy above.

[imron]

> I know it is probably at least worth $1000 right now

Based on the sale price from last week, it's worth about $200 right now.

[vonklaus]

while this is regarding the domain, and also a cheeky comment, consider that broadly:

* there is friction in the market

* information is distributed asymmetrically

* improvements can be made quickly with technology

* value is different for each actor, synergy could provide a more compelling case for an action

* people still make money of arbitrage

* people will pay not to wait, e.g. registration and ownership of an asset in a foreign country has a 1-2 month lag.

etc.

[davemel37]

> I registered a domain last week directly from the registrar for $200 a year, which Is a lot for me. I know it is probably at least worth $1000

This is a perfect example of the trajectory I was referring to. Back in 2006 I believed I could register a name from a registrar and turn around and sell it for $1000. I even knew the economics of domaining. All the monetization strategies, sales tactics, valuation models, and based my belief on comparable sales, etc... (in other words, there was real value independent of two buyers competing for it.)

Yet, now I believe it is tantamount to a scam. Intrinsically, there is no value in a domain name that you can register today. The value is a complete fiction. Sure, there are tons of suckers today buying names they shouldn't, taken in by the shining lights, but this is my point. The domain names that have intrinsic value are long gone and have been for over a decade. (i.e 2 & 3 character, dictionary words, short pronounceable & brandable, names, places, etc...)

The only value in domain names today is if two people both desperately want the name. Too often it is the ego of someone who falls in love with a name they thought of for their brand and can't untangle their ego from reality and end up buying a name that they didn't need.

In a few years, their knowledge will catch up with mine today and they will perceive the opportunity the way I do. The same way in a few years I will have the experience to view things in a new light. I have to remind myself that someone exposed to domaining in the last 5 years doesn't have the benefit of learning what I learned over the last decade.

> domains for an analogy are like real estate.

I used to share this belief, but now I believe it is built on a fundamental misunderstanding.

Fundamentally, the only thing that would give a name value like real estate is if its easier to spell or remember. I.e. more accessible than another name. There really is no intrinsic difference between genius.com or smartbloke.com or owlsmarts.com All are short, easy to spell, easy to remember, easy to tell over to friends, and conjure up the same general idea. Yet, domain sellers will have you believe that genius.com is worth 10x-100x the value of the others. This is a pure fabrication.

Real estate and location have very real dynamics like accessibility, visibility, local demographics, parking, passing traffic, etc...

In the old days, a domain name with type in traffic would trade for 4-6 years revenue from parked traffic. That was comparable to real estate.

My point is simply that I can't understand how someone buys a great generic domain name for 5-6 figures like nerdy.com, when they can accomplish 95% of the same thing with any two dictionary words like, " nerdybird.com or nerdyduckling.com , etc...

[vonklaus]

I agree with you for the most part and it is possible-- quite likely even, that I am saying my example is the exception to the rule, but generally it is not the case. However, I am not domain squatting and the economnics aren't there to do that anyway, it was to illustrate the larger point that some domains, like real estate assets and "tech" companies are very valuable while apparently similar substitutes are not value and actually quite dangerous.

Currently, subtle differences make a big impact on metrics(growth, value, price) & the market is beginning to price these in. If you have seen the big short, it is a great movie, but the opening line is something like:

It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.

So try to check myself when I think about something like this, although it is obviously difficult. In this current framing, certainly one or both of us, is wrong and it is sort of a matter of timing.

I think we are in 1993 and you think(I don't want to put words in your mouth) are in 98'. Either way, if you were in 93 or 98 and knew what to look for you could have made a lot of money, and you yourself may have because you were fundamentally correct when others weren't.

So on balance, I think you are totally correct and I do not disagree with you. However, my estimation is that many people are making the mistake of grouping unrelated things together and drawin g a conclusion, when I think that in fact, the opposite could be true currently.

[davemel37]

Fair enough.