| I do not think we get AI in the near future. What we have at the moment are more like 'Intelligence Amplification' tools for humans to use/direct. But there are 3 concerns: (1) Maybe, although the chance is small, it is so bad that prob x payoff is large enough that we ought to worry/think about it? (2) If it happens that jobs lost to AI are not replaced by other work (hard to say) then we have unemployment & social problems. (3) The current deep learning breakthroughs in image recognition, speech recognition, etc, make it much easier to process all that surveillance data that is being gathered. When surveillance tools, and e.g. drones as well, can be controlled by small numbers of humans, you should be worried.
Historically, governments have usually required the support of a fair fraction of their populace in order to stay in power. Ordering soldiers to shoot their fellow citizens has always been risky for governments. Soon that might not be the case. In the past, a nation's power depended on its level of technology, its capital equipment, and the number and skills of its population. There was an incentive to have a skilled, well fed, and content populace. Maybe a large part of the populace will no longer be 'needed'? I guess you could counter points 2 & 3 by saying "Yes, but our democratic institutions are strong and our politicians are caring and intelligent - our societies will deal with these changes." For myself, (3) scares me. You should be afraid of ending up like the Scottish Highlanders turfed out of their homes by Chiefs who replaced them with sheep, or like the cart-horses who were replaced by the internal combustion engine (and were shot). There is no need to fear an AI taking over, it is humans you need to be afraid of. |