[pmarreck]

This is one of those cases where evidence instead of supposition helps a lot.

> The odds of first marriage are better than 50/50

That depends on a shocking number of variables. For example, http://www.maselliwarren.com/2014/03/20/divorce-rates-increa... "60 percent of marriages for couples between the ages of 20 and 25 end in divorce. For couples who are even younger, the prognosis becomes bleaker still."

http://www.maselliwarren.com/2014/02/28/factors-affect-divor... "“Marriages are more likely to last for longer periods of time when people marry at an older age, have a higher education and earn more"

There was another source citing evidence that too much relationship experience prior to marriage can confound marriage happiness somewhat, but it was from a Christian (and therefore biased and/or scientifically suspect) source. Here's something more scientific:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/7893...