[xiaoma]

This is one of the least informed posts I've ever seen on HN about cross strait issues.

Unlike HK or Macau, Taiwan is a fully democratic state and has been for decades. Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/12/we-are-no-compatriots-of...

The only way China could annex the island would entering a war. That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan in that case (due to the Taiwan relations act).

[at-fates-hands]

>> That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan.

Maybe ten years ago, I would say it would never happen.

However, fighting several wars in the middle east, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the US not doing anything, let alone NATO not doing anything, leads me to hesitate to say anything would be done to stop it. Maybe this changes over the next decade, but if it were to happen soon, I have my doubts the US would have the moral constitution to do anything to stop it.

[xiaoma]

It certainly doesn't help that Europe, particularly France, has spent the past two decades selling China the weapons and tech to do the invasion.

That said, Taiwan is a country of roughly similar population and economic clout as Australia. Standing by and ignoring an act of war on that scale would be devastating to international stability (and US security interests).

[hkmurakami]

I would imagine that the precedent the US would set with not honoring is defense agreement would have enormous repercussions for its relationship and bargaining power with both South Korea and Japan.

That would tip the balance towards US intervention.

[xiaoma]

If the US and NATO in general let Taiwan fall, it would pretty much guarantee Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Thailand to start nuclear programs.

[AnimalMuppet]

That's probably true. And if so, it means that it is probably not in China's interest to take Taiwan.

[chvid]

:-)

I was mostly referring to the what I believe be the strategic thinking of the Chinese communists.

"Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese."

That is not my impression. But it is hard to gage for me.

[xiaoma]

Polls on that very topic are a regular part of election cycles in Taiwan. Back in the late 80s there was a sizable minority of Taiwanese people identified themselves as Chinese and many others identified as Chinese and Taiwanese.

Now about 2/3 of the population identifies as Taiwanese, about 1/3 identifies as Taiwanese and Chinese and the percentage identifying as Chinese is less than the standard error of the surveys. The long term trend shows no sign of slowing down or reversing either.

If you're interested in the topic, Zhengda (aka NCCU) has an election study center and publishes their findings.