[forgetsusername]

>I haven't seen evidence that these ghost cities are the result of central planners building slack for expected growth.

I think this reveals some bias. The evidence is the cities themselves. Or do you think that it's central planners merely trying to improve GDP numbers, but completely oblivious to the fact that Chinese citizens are urbanizing at a scale not seen before in human history?

[seanmcdirmid]

If you are talking about Ordos New Town, it is local governments and tycoons trying to do something with their coal money. This isn't really central planning, more like investment options suck, and we can't just park our money in the bank, so let's build a city in the middle of nowhere! Ordos is filling up slowly, but it's clear at this point that many of the buildings will be torn down before they are ever occupied (Chinese constructed buildings only last around 20-30 year before they are completely derelict).

China is urbanizing, but it is not clear those poor farmers can afford the $200k+ apartments being built...even if they come down by half or more. Not only that, but these farmers can't even get hukou, making them second class citizens in the cities they might move to, ineligible for schooling for their kids or even subsidized healthcare. China needs to do a lot of reforming before this massive urbanization can happen, and they haven't really prepared for it (e.g. By focusing on luxury apartments vs. mass social housing with schools and hospitals enough to give those farmers proper urban hukou).

Finally, farmers can't even sell their land to buy an urban apartment. Instead, they have to wait for it to be appropriated by the local government (if near a growing urban area) or otherwise, they are just SOL. It really is quite a mess.

[dh997]

Exactly. Wealth transfer and mobility for some, but not growing a middle class sufficiently to realize these artificial investments. China could invest more in better equiping people to make and earn more value, so they can afford cleaner/nicer cars, homes, factories, etc.