It looks like the dictator/autocratic states in Asia (Russia/China) with its economy collapsing, is resorting to territorial aggression against neighboring countries in order to get resources and get people to look away from its collapse. China exports fall 11.2% in January, imports down 18.8% http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/14/china-releases-trade-data-for.... Russia's ruble collapses to lowest level, with "Inflation reached 12.5% in 2015 while real wages kept dropping, leaving many people much worse off." everhttp://money.cnn.com/2016/01/20/investing/russia-ruble-recor...
With Russia bumping against all of Europe, and China bumping against Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Vietnam/Malaysia/Indonesia/Phillipines, this is going to be bad for world stability.
some data points about the Russia/Chinese dictators that some people love (or they're just paid trolls from Russian/Chinese government)
Putin is worth $200 billion, "After 14 years in power of Russia, and the amount of money that the country has made, and the amount of money that hasn't been spent on schools and roads and hospitals and so on" http://www.businessinsider.com/russias-former-largest-foreig...
In case anyone did't get the "disputed" part, Vietnam occupies most of South China Sea islands especially in the 70s and 80s around Sino-Vietnam war. China (actually Republic of China) claimed them earliest but didn't occupy.
If you google "nine-dash line", which violates UNCLOS, you'll understand why the ASEAN countries are upset and rightly so. China has visibly flexed their muscle in the region in recent years with building military bases, adding land to underwater islands so they can claim sea territory around them, and attacking fishing boats in disputed region. Some of this happen to dispute with Japan as well. With the economy not going well, I'm afraid this may be the Communist Party's strategy to diffuse tensions at home in order to hold on to power.
It's disputed because 3 countries claim ownership of the the island as it's within their "territorial" (with the exception of Taiwan which claims it because it's still pretends to represent "real China") waters.
China pretty much made claim to all of the waters it's claim extends as far as the shore lines of Malaysia.
China also extends it's claim over waters outside of the immediate territorial waters by building artificial islands so far only within the 200 n/M of their exclusive economic zone which it claims extends it's coastal waters even further (this isn't exactly the case for this specific island (it's land mass was artificially extended, and a large harbor was built) but an important background point for the entire dispute).
So far countries have refrained from militarizing the islands too much sure they might post a couple of sailors here and there but this is a long rang air defense system capable of shooting down aircraft as far as 400km away, this is basically an S-300/400 [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S-400_(missile)] "copy" with a much more advanced radar and better interceptors by all counts.
S-400 long range capability is mostly theoretical, as there's no stock of the 40N6 missile capable of it. Especially doubtful in case of China, given the secondary nature of their missile technology.
China builds their own interceptors so the availability of Russian stockpiles isn't relevant, they've both deployed and conducted real world tests on multiple interceptors beyond the initial 200 KM range that the system went into service with including having improved interceptors that can counter ballistic missiles and satellites[https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007_Chinese_anti-satellite_mi...].
By all accounts it was a modified HQ-9 interceptor which was piggybacked on a short/medium range ballistic missile (mostly because of the high inclination of the test satellite, which might mean it's quite likely to be potentially capable of reaching LEO VISINT satellites which pass over the interceptor on it's own).
The problem with the powers that be playing the ultra-nationalist card is that is difficult to stop playing; like gambling or burying corporate debt it might lead to short term gains, but sooner or later you have to pay. There are ample examples of ultra-nationalist states that have exploded, imploded, or withered on the vine; and none have lasted the distance with out some kind of revolution, quiet or otherwise. Things will get worse before they get better, this is definitely not the bottom of the barrel. You can tell the wise ones are already cashing in their chips and are exfiltrating their wealth. Loans that were once prime will become sub-prime once the capital has fled. These state financed, but often personally influenced, loans that are currently sub-prime; well...
china will get its way. imagine china building a military base on cuba or hispaniola and see how well that sits with the us government, un commission be damned. as china grows it wants to secure it's geographical sphere of influence, and all the western powers in the world will not win this battle. china has much more to lose and win.
protestations by the phillipines and other smaller outlying nations are again, the same as cuba or puerto rico or haiti protesting against guantanamo bay. the bottom line is that the dominant regional power dictates the terms and the smaller guys follow. if i were a western power i would spend just a modicum of effort pushing back against china but concurrently prepare to lose this battle.
Russia and China are quite different and in different situations. China benifits hugely by the drop in commodity prices and Russia does the opposite.
It is also much easier to understand the strategic goals of China:
This "dispute" will eventually amount to nothing; it is mere posturing showing the Americans that any military action will be too costly.
In a couple of decades; Taiwan will join China in a manner similar to what happened to Hong Kong and Macau. This will happen when the wealth of the average mainland Chinese is compareable to that of the average Taiwanese and China will be Taiwan's absolutely dominant trading partner.
When this happens China will for purposes have broken American control of the South China sea.
This is one of the least informed posts I've ever seen on HN about cross strait issues.
Unlike HK or Macau, Taiwan is a fully democratic state and has been for decades. Also unlike people in HK or Macau, Taiwanese don't consider themselves Chinese.
The only way China could annex the island would entering a war. That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan in that case (due to the Taiwan relations act).
>> That would be extremely ill-advised considering the US committed to defending Taiwan.
Maybe ten years ago, I would say it would never happen.
However, fighting several wars in the middle east, the Russian annexation of Crimea and the US not doing anything, let alone NATO not doing anything, leads me to hesitate to say anything would be done to stop it. Maybe this changes over the next decade, but if it were to happen soon, I have my doubts the US would have the moral constitution to do anything to stop it.
It certainly doesn't help that Europe, particularly France, has spent the past two decades selling China the weapons and tech to do the invasion.
That said, Taiwan is a country of roughly similar population and economic clout as Australia. Standing by and ignoring an act of war on that scale would be devastating to international stability (and US security interests).
I would imagine that the precedent the US would set with not honoring is defense agreement would have enormous repercussions for its relationship and bargaining power with both South Korea and Japan.
That would tip the balance towards US intervention.
Polls on that very topic are a regular part of election cycles in Taiwan. Back in the late 80s there was a sizable minority of Taiwanese people identified themselves as Chinese and many others identified as Chinese and Taiwanese.
Now about 2/3 of the population identifies as Taiwanese, about 1/3 identifies as Taiwanese and Chinese and the percentage identifying as Chinese is less than the standard error of the surveys. The long term trend shows no sign of slowing down or reversing either.
If you're interested in the topic, Zhengda (aka NCCU) has an election study center and publishes their findings.
Foxconn (Taiwanese manufacturer for Apple) decision to invest a whopping $5 billion in India has caused unease in China as it marks the first top international firm opting for India amid a slowdown in the Chinese economy.
I don't know the history of China's takeover of Macau.
But in case of Hong Kong it was mostly legal and diplomatic reasons (of the UK). Taiwan is an independent democracy, it's very unlikely they'd willingly agree to that.
Personally I'd rather bet on the CCP loosing/giving-up power than Taiwan joining the Mainland. And Hong Kong could possibly be one of the triggers.
Not to mention US loosing Taiwan [and South Korea] as huge allies would be almost as bad as loosing Israel. They won't let that happen.
"Shortly after Portugal's 1974 Carnation Revolution, which overthrew the Estado Novo dictatorship, the new government determined it would relinquish all its overseas possessions. In 1976, Lisbon redefined Macau as a "Chinese territory under Portuguese administration" and granted it a large measure of administrative, financial, and economic autonomy. Three years later, Portugal and China agreed to regard Macau as "a Chinese territory under (temporary) Portuguese administration".[17][45] The Chinese and Portuguese governments commenced negotiations on the question of Macau in June 1986. The two signed a Sino-Portuguese Joint Declaration the next year, making Macau a special administrative region (SAR) of China.[46] The Chinese government assumed formal sovereignty over Macau on 20 December 1999.[47]"
China has too many nervous neighbors for any change in relationship between TW and CN to change the USs role in the SCS region. You have Japan, Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Taiwan all having disputes with China. So even if TW were to drop claims, you have quite a few restless neighbors left. Besides, Mr Ma the acquiescer is stepping down. And most young people prefer an independent identity.
Pretty well, actually. The Cleveland Plain Dealer (as I recall) showed Cleveland as within range of the missiles meant to be set up there.
In the 1980s I talked with a guy who had been a landing-craft driver for the Army in the early 1960s. His unit was sent down the Intercoastal Waterway to pick up an armored division in Florida. Fortunately for all, the tanks stayed on dry ground, and landing craft went back north.
With Russia bumping against all of Europe, and China bumping against Japan/Korea/Taiwan/Vietnam/Malaysia/Indonesia/Phillipines, this is going to be bad for world stability.