[marknutter]

"Try building a player that runs a huge range of dynamic content written on a variety of tools (some of which you don't control) by developers with massively varying skill levels. Now try making it compatible, consistent, and performant across dozens of OSes, browsers, platforms, and devices. And maintain backwards compatibility with the last 9 versions even while your target platforms change. And keep it under 5MB. And maintain it in parity with an OSS effort (Tamarin). And try to keep up with the demands of one of the most active and vocal developer communities."

Isn't this something the open source community would handle amiably? It seems like a problem that shouldn't be handled by one company. He doesn't ever address the problem that Flash is closed source and controlled by one commercial entity, but instead goes after the low hanging fruit.

He also fails to point out that the tools and technology behind HTML5 will improve dramatically as it becomes widely used.

[mortenjorck]

This is why Adobe really needs to open-source the Flash Player. What do they have to lose from doing that at this point? The player only stands to improve, an improved player drives adoption, and with the install base currently in decline, I think they might want to consider all their options.

[sosuke]

I'm interested to hear where you've read that the installations of the Flash player are in decline. It seems to me that when all the browsers can fully use all the HTML5, CSS3 fun you will still be able to use the Flash plugin as well and the install numbers won't decrease anytime soon. Won't these technologies just co-exist?

[pan69]

There already is an open-source Flash player. It's very good. not. http://www.gnashdev.org/

Oh, sorry. what you're saying is that Adobe should pay for the developmentof this open-source Flash player... Ah, right.

[cjbos]

He does mention the tools and technology, he thinks Adobe will re-jig their tools to output to HTML5 and provides a link showing that this is the direction they are going with the next release http://blogs.adobe.com/jnack/2009/10/sneak_peek_ai_fl_dw_can...

I think he's spot on, especially with the time frame and the transition of resource from one platform to another. There are not enough HTML5 & Canvas developers currently to take over the current Flash workload, the transition will be slow enough that Flash devs will ramp up in the new skillset. Those flash devs doing interactive development today are likely to be the developers doing canvas work in the future.