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by takasc2 3784 days ago
From the article - wind power is projected to reach 30gw worldwide in 2019 - for comparison nuclear power worldwide reached 300gw in the 1980's.
3 comments

I'm not sure what they're referencing there, but GWEC keeps better numbers and we're well over 400GW installed worldwide by now:

http://www.gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/Global-Cumula...

We're adding more than 50GW/year now, which should easily put us over the amount of nameplate capacity nuclear installed worldwide. Within the next decade, wind will surpass Nuclear in actual twh of generation as well.

If you assume nuclear is about 400GW installed worldwide and a 90% capacity factor, then wind would only need 900GW installed to match output at a 40% capacity factor. NREL just realeased data that shows potential capacity factors of 60% on over 2 million acres in the US:

http://apps2.eere.energy.gov/wind/windexchange/windmaps/reso...

Wind and solar are steadily eating world power generation.

I'm not sure what they're referencing there, but GWEC keeps better numbers and we're well over 400GW installed worldwide by now

They may have been referring to installed capacity in the UK, not worldwide. 30GW by 2019 sounds about right.

Wind supplied 17% of the UK's entire electricity demand in December 2015

Comparing wind and nuclear is not an apples-to-apples comparison. To make a valid comparison, you would need to compare wind + some kind of back up such as natural gas (or possibly some nuclear).

There is a premium for reliable sources of electricity generation since you have to have reliable generation to avoid blackouts.

You make an excellent point.

Wind and solar can capture more $fiat per MWh if they purchase Tesla stationary storage and can deliver firm dispatchability (that premium for reliable generation you mention).

Natural gas will make a fine stopgap until we have enough battery storage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dispatchable_generation

I am not aware of any market where generators are getting a premium for being dispatchable. I would be very interested in knowing what the value is.

Certainly some markets have prices that vary through the day to give generators the incentive to generate when power is needed most if they have that flexibility.

The UK system has a "capacity auction", separate from the spot price, which covers dispatchable generation.

"Through the auction, government has procured 49.26GW of capacity at a clearing price of £19.40kW" (second link). Note units are kW not MWh.

http://www.nationalgridconnecting.com/keeping-the-lights-on/

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/the-first-ever-capacity-m...

Well that's wrong.

The UK has (8,516 + 5,098) ~= 13.6GW of wind capacity[1].

They seem to have reported the UK offshore amount ("8,179MW") as the global capacity:

The global offshore wind market experienced a record year by installed capacity in 2015. Consultancy FTI Intelligence has projected installed generation capacity to nearly quadruple to 31,200 megawatts in 2019 from 8,179 megawatts in 2014.

[1] http://www.renewableuk.com/en/renewable-energy/wind-energy/u...

30GWe is not bad, considering its up from 8GWe in 2014.

for comparison nuclear power worldwide reached 300gw in the 1980's

... And has largely stagnated since, even declining a bit since the mid-2000s.