[MCRed]

I grew up before the generation of kids who booted into basic-- I started programming with a soldering iron. I designed my first computer. Then I designed a video card for it. Then I had to write a BIOS for it.

Here's the reality though, Hypercard was a failure. People didn't use BASIC on the Apple II. some did, sure, but most didn't.

Most people are not programmers and not programming inclined. Apple gives away the tools you need to build software for your iPad or iPHone-- in the form of Xcode which is FREE FOR EVERYONE to use. It's one of the best tools out there-- when Microsoft was still charging thousands a year, Apple put theirs out for free (and of course, these days Linux and GCC and Ruby on Rails and the whole programming tradition of open source puts even more tools in people's hands.)

But heres the thing. Most people don't care. It's never been a better time to be a programmer.

But the vast majority of people don't want to be.

[nitrogen]

But heres the thing. Most people don't care. It's never been a better time to be a programmer.

But the vast majority of people don't want to be.

That just means the tools aren't done yet.

[Pamar]

Hammers and screwdrivers are - I think - pretty mature tools. Still lots of people do not care for DIY and prefer to buy premade or pay someone else to take care of custom solutions.

[nitrogen]

Hammers and screwdrivers still require quite a bit of thought and planning. IMO, the tools of the "real computer revolution" won't be done until they're at least as effortless as the Star Trek holodeck ("computer, give me a table here, made out of metal").

[manigandham]

Or that most people don't want to be...

[csydas]

I would agree with the overall sentiment that people don't want to be programmers, but I don't think it's just a lack of care, I think it's still an intimidation factor that bothers a lot of people. I would instead posit that most people can't even make an informed decision on the matter because they're too scared of computers/programming.

My experience is anecdotal from providing computer support and education over ~10 years, so obviously this should be taken with a grain of salt. But across all age groups and diverse backgrounds, those who aren't into computers seem to be intimidated by them. In trying to teach even the basics of the command line to the technicians I was training, often the biggest factor as to how fast they learned was "are they intimidated by computers?", and even those who fit the stereotype of PC gamer nerds would still freeze up a bit when going through the basics of command line like learning about cd and ls.

It's true that quite a few people probably aren't inclined towards programming - the skills and mindset a good programmer has are fairly unique, much like a good composer or a good artist. It's a very delicate mixture of creativity, technical skill, logical reasoning, knowledge, and of course determination. (This list describes all of the above professions, imo) The issue is whereas it's perfectly acceptable for kids and adults to pick up an instrument or dabble in painting from time to time as a hobby, hobbyist programming just really isn't as readily taken up.

It's why I scoff at articles that call the current generations of kids "tech savvy", since they're anything but. Most are still appliance users, and many can't even do everything the appliance advertises. I don't fault anyone but education systems that don't have strong support and exposure to programming and computers at young ages. It's the same reason that second language acquisition is so poor in the US, merely because people just aren't being exposed to it at an age when they don't have social inhibitions kicking in. The focus of the programs doesn't have to be to produce an army of super programmers, just a class of children that are familiar with the subject matter, as they might be able to recall some fact about ancient egypt or about agriculture.

I don't think we'll have a completely code-savvy populous for a long time; but it wouldn't be hard to have hobbyist programmers become much more common.

[XenophileJKO]

To be fair, Microsoft is also giving away a full featured IDE now.