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by jmorrow977 3803 days ago
Instead of injecting money top-down through the Federal Reserve and large banks, they could inject it bottom-up in selected industries. Invest $1 trillion in biotech. Some will succeed and produce amazing advances. Most will fail, but they'll still drive employment, education, services, etc. targeting that industry, driving down the cost of inputs to the biotech sector for decades.

Of course, this can be done not completely blindly, by investing 10 to 1 with existing investors, or providing a guarantee to return 50% of lost capital, or having milestones companies need to hit, or have experts in the field provide "votes" toward getting higher levels of funding after examining their progress so far.

1 comments

We don't want governments trying to pick winners, or generally even having an industrial policy at all. Their track record has been far worse than private investors. And politically it's impossible to justify when a large government investment fails. For example, look at Solyndra.

At better approach to stimulating demand would be to offer a cash prize or a guaranteed purchase contract for specific innovations that meet defined criteria. For example, what if the US federal government offered to purchase 10 million doses of a 90%+ effective Zika virus vaccine at $100 per dose? I'll bet that would encourage private investors to take a gamble.

Well, if the government is going to drop money from helicopters, I would at least prefer they ATTEMPT to do so in a way that might lead to some scientific advancement. They could also just send everyone a check for $1000, but although that would create some demand, it wouldn't likely lead to investments in long-term payoff high-risk science. I understand and somewhat sympathize with the idea that we don't want the government telling us to do with our money, and maybe we should let people spend that $1000 however they want, but I'm proposing trying to kill two birds with one stone here and also at least ATTEMPT to put the money initially in the hands of people trying to create something rather than just consume some basic goods.
But then the money would be going to engineers and other educated people, who already have decent incomes and job prospects. There is no benefit to the poorer classes with that system.
You are suggesting what already exists, plus a guarantee. How does your guarantee change behavior? We already have the expectation of payoff for success, that's how we got to this point to begin with.