[rhino369]

You have to make a killing on that 10% if you are going to make up all the losses on the 90%. That works for early state investing, but I can't imagine that works for late stage.

But the real problem with bubbles isn't that loser companies are pumped up, but real profitable companies are way overvalued too. During the dotcom crash Microsoft lost half its value. It was a winner. It had massive profit margins the whole time.

So Uber may be in the 10% success. But if you invest right now, it might be worth half as much in 5 years.