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by rorykoehler 3811 days ago
The world is about to enter a deflationary period. Perhaps capitalists are not the geniuses you make them out to be and just got lucky. Correlation != causation etc etc
2 comments

Contrary to popular belief, there can be economic growth during periods of deflation, as demonstrated by the economist Gary Shilling. Paul Buchheit gave a presentation in London which understood capitalism as a technology. I think that is the right way to regard it. Unfortunately, over the last 30 years Western society has turned capitalism into an ideology, something to be worshipped and bowed down to.
How do you know the world is about to enter a deflationary period? With that kind of inside knowledge you can get quite rich.
The central banks are turning off the money taps, growth is pretty stagnant across all major economies (bar the US and UK). Wealth inequality is rising while automation is arriving with a bang putting people out of their jobs and at an increasing rate and also putting downward pressure on prices as manufacturing costs fall, meaning the masses won't be spending much. China was a major driver of global economic growth but is undergoing a huge correction, Brazil has been in a recession since last year, Russia is suffering under sanctions, the Eurozone is becoming Japan mark 2, the price of oil is dropping like never before affecting the Middle East's ability to grow (notwithstanding the war currently ravaging the area). This all points to a period deflation.

Only people with money can make money with economic foresights.

Not true. If you're really sure of yourself you can leverage up without much money.
Much is still some.

Edit: I got down-voted because I've got no money?

I didn't down vote (I can't; I don't have the points) but I imagine it is because what you said sounded like a knee jerk reaction or perhaps because you missed the word without in your quote.

Or because people are assholes. It doesn't matter. Smile (:

Thanks for your kind reply. I don't really mind, I just find it curious how privileged people can be. Living hand to mouth is very humbling and I'm still easily within the top 50% in terms of global wealth, purely due to having been born in the right place.

I never set out to make money anyways (though I would like a little bit more than I have now), but I wouldn't feel comfortable participating in a system I would rather didn't exist (i.e. shorting markets, making money by moving money etc). If I was really interested in that I would have attempted it long ago, (in fact I was presented with ample opportunity to do so, by a dodgy potential investor, in a previous business venture) but I prefer to immerse myself in making things.

Reading posts such as PG's pro-inequality posts I have realised that I have something no rich person could ever have, and that is an insight into how the majority of people in the world think and act, and why this happens. For example I only need one reasonable pay day and my whole consciousness changes, everything I think about, do and occupy myself with, flips. Creativity suddenly explodes and productivity goes through the roof. I'm not sure people who have never experienced hand to mouth living realise how destructive inequality and poverty really are. It is holding back the true potential of the human race in uncountable ways.