[graeme]

>wondering whether I should turn around and buy property as an investment

Why would you do this? There's been nothing but talk about a housing bubble, especially in Vancouver and Toronto. This seems like the worst possible time to buy property there, especially if you take any debt to do it.

[F_J_H]

This has been the talk for many years now. I know people who have been waiting for the bubble to burst, and now have absolutely no chance of ever getting into the market.

[graeme]

And if someone bought three years ago, and paid property tax, maintenance, interest on debt and all other fees, etc....what has their return been?

I doubt it's very much, and they've got major downside risk.

[F_J_H]

How well do you know the Vancouver market? The returns in the last decade have been stunning.

[graeme]

My brother sent me this chart earlier today:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/incoming/article26200269.ece/...

I'm estimating since the chart isn't precise. It looks like, from 2013, the average change is:

single family home: 1.1 million --> 1.4 million = 8.37% return

condo: Hard to tell. Not as large.

Am I reading that chart right? Of course, that doesn't tell you the increase in price in existing homes. And that return rate comes with interest, fees, property taxes, maintenance and the massive downside risk if we're in a bubble.

This is a very rough calculation on my part, so let me know if it's wrong.

That said, as to the original question, which was whether someone should invest now: With the massive economic slowdown + the large drop in Calgary real estate prices, this seems like a particularly bad time to invest, even if it might theoretically have been better a few years ago.

[krooj]

Buy after it bursts, when prices collapse.

[serge2k]

Yeah, reading this just makes me think that now is when I should be saving up to buy in Vancouver and return home.