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by ikeboy 3820 days ago
What do you think of http://lesswrong.com/lw/hl/lotteries_a_waste_of_hope/ and http://lesswrong.com/lw/hm/new_improved_lottery/?
2 comments

I don't know what he thinks of it, but everyone should give these two pieces (especially the second one) a read. I was absolutely ready to hate it given the title of the first one (I, too, am in the "buying a dream" rationality camp), but the second piece especially was just too damn good.
We have lotteries that give you this hope over period of time (albeit shorter).

It's radio lotteries. You send them text (paid). And they pick few people to call back and to inform them that they won.

For the first article the "a sink of emotional energy" needs some proof that it's harmful. Without that it's just the author's opinion.

It's very easy to argue that the fantasy helps people de-stress and ends up improving their lives.

Studies have found that depressed people are better at estimating odds. There's decent evidence that too much reality is bad for your emotional well being.

The second article is even easier to dismiss. To generate excitement the buy in has to be high enough that people feel a bit invested, and the result has to be quick enough that people don't loose interest.