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by WA 3816 days ago
This image removed any temptation for gambling once and for all, because after all, a 1:292,201,338 chance really isn't anything one can grasp easily:

A car goes from San Diego to New Orleans and the driver throws a quarter out of his window at some point in time.

Now you drive the same route. You get the chance to stop once on this route. If your front tire comes to a halt at the exact same spot of that quarter, you hit the jackpot.

How likely does that feel?

2 comments

Is the concept to map the distance of the route to the width of the quarter? 1 inch diameter quarter, ~1800 mile route (1.1405e+8 inches) -- off by one order of magnitude... nitpick aside, very clever visual depiction, and easy enough to explain the math. I'll have to remember this one.
Very likely if 292,201,338 took the challenge.

People do win lotteries at times, don't they?

Sure, someone will probably be stuck in a traffic jam right next to the quarter at some point, but does that help anyone to win this challenge on purpose? :)