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Since I'm most likely will have no impact on any plans I'm only hoping for some optimistic predictions (a plausible bright future) and what mechanics would be involved. So no, I'm not expecting an air tight plan, just a hint at how it might look. My general take is that, AI or not, the world is continuing to progress towards a future where extinction level capabilities are not only within reach, but also within reach for more and more people. It is, to me, not a question of if, but when, such capabilities will be in the hands of an individual, or organization, that either by malice, or incompetence, would be a serious problem. Last year a pilot intentionally crashed a plane in act of sucicde, taking 150 passengers with him. Consider a likeminded person capable of engineering a virus. So, my optimistic take on the future is that while such capabilities are developed, one would hope, that in parallel capabilities to mitigate those threats are also developed, so that when the problems arise the combined capabilities of all benign actors is sufficient to evade extinction. In the case of AI it just seems implausible that any debate could manage to stop the technological race. Just look at the climate change debate, it has been going on for decades and is just gaining political traction. AI isn't even on the radar yet... So the plausible futures too me are either that AI will wipe us out, or not. In the event that it does not I think one plausible future is that the potentially malign AI will operate in an environment where other AI, or near AI-systems, will also perceive it as a threat. Hopefully aggregating into the capacity to suppress the dangers in a benign way. Also, I believe any path from here to AI will consist of a complex system of AI-like technology interwoven with human systems resulting in some aggregates with considerable capablites itself not to be discounted. In some sense I believe we can extrapolate how things will play out just by looking at some systems that might resemble AI today. Consider corporations, these are actors created from a complex system of legal, economic, social and other constructs. While ostensibly owned by, and operated by, humans, the reality is that there is little any individual human can influence them in view of all other forces directing their actions, making them, in a sense, allready existing, AI:s. Creating actual AI, as a useful thing, will probably involve similar complexity and influences. So in some sense there are probably similar patterns that will play out. Just as corporations can act to influence the world in ways malign to humans, the AI systems would. And just as corporations, the AI would find it self acting in an environment doing its best to contain the malice. |