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> Why is it more likely that we're going to develop superintelligent autonomous insect drones than we are to annihilate ourselves with human-controlled mechanical systems, as we've had the capability to do so for many years now (nuclear ICBMs and so forth)?

Proliferation issues and barrier to entry.

They don't need to be super-intelligent if their task is just to find the nearest eyeballs and it's much much harder to stop someone producing killer insect drones - the industry for which has many uses - than it is to stop them producing an ICBM (the industry for which is fairly specific.)

We're talking about something someone could conceivably do, on a small scale, in their garage given a couple of years and very minor funding. From there it's just a matter of scale.