[vezzy-fnord]

Deflationary spirals are a hypothetical concern and mostly a fringe neo-Fisherian idea that has recently gained some mainstream nodding, but is otherwise difficult to verify in any way.

For one thing it assumes a massive collective irrationality where people's expectations are all rendered berserk and plunged into a negative time preference. It's a very tough gambit to make that people can withdraw their propensity to consume to such a high extent. It's tough to presume that the heterogeneous stock of capital and the time structure of production will just stand still to a deflationary pressure and not readjust to add more stages or adjust the price spreads in between. [1] Of course, BTC being a global currency means it exists in competition and per Gresham's law can always be driven out. Not a catastrophe.

[1] https://www.jstor.org/stable/2547921

[crdoconnor]

>For one thing it assumes a massive collective irrationality where people's expectations are all rendered berserk and plunged into a negative time preference.

One of the more idiotic ideas to come out of neoclassical economics is the assumption that a negative time preference is irrational or impossible, when most of us have one (pension, passing wealth on to one's kids, saving up to buy big ticket items, etc.).

Indeed, what would really be irrational is spending all of your money immediately.

[vezzy-fnord]

I am uncertain as to why you imply that a) I think a negative time preference is irrational or impossible apodictically, b) that the former is necessarily a neoclassical idea when the neoclassical synthesis in fact eschews it, c) that there is a natural rate of time preference, d) that time preferences do not differ per subjective valuations and units of goods on an individual scale, or that they are not dynamic, and e) that to respond to the assertion that deflationary spirals are unrealistic in presupposing a fixed natural rate of negative time preference with the opposite straw man idea of extremely high time preferences that favor immediate consumption is a convincing line of argument (indeed, the latter cannot be true for it would make capital investment an impossibility).

The three activities you list in parentheses apply only for those goods, and do not even imply a negative time preference. Saving doesn't have to be a result of negativity at all, per se.

[crdoconnor]

>the opposite straw man idea of extremely high time preferences that favor immediate consumption is a convincing line of argument (indeed, the latter cannot be true for it would make capital investment an impossibility).

Under the neoclassical synthesis capital investment is done purely by investors who have a positive time preference but are being paid enough to offset their desire to spend absolutely all of their money right this second.

It's kind of dumb.

[dnautics]

the irony is that in order to satisfy these 'negative time preferences', inflation forces people into risky investment behavior, which is basically regressive wealth redistribution. And then we complain how the rich get richer and the poor get poorer, and blame it on capitalism.