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by klenwell 3840 days ago
They [former employees] say she [founder, Elizabeth Holmes] would become angry and sometimes fire people who pointed out problems. She often spoke as though the company’s technology already existed, they said, rather than as if it were still in development.

Funny how that works. I'm just getting into the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Tetlock and Gardner and came across this passage:

Galen is an extreme example but he is the sort of figure who pops up repeatedly in the history of medicine. They are men (always men) of strong convinction and profound trust in their own judgement. They embrace treaments, develop bold theories for why they work, denounce rivals as quacks and charlatans, and spread their insights with evangelical passion.

So even if Theranos is a complete flop, Holmes may still prove a groundbreaker in her hubris. Tetlock and Gardner sum up the problem by quoting Richard Feynman:

What medicine lacked was doubt. "Doubt is not a fearful thing," Feynman observed, "but a thing of very great value." It's what propels science forward.

Less so, I guess, visionary entrepreneurs.

2 comments

Another Feynman quote that comes to mind:

"For a successful technology, reality must take precedence over public relations, for Nature cannot be fooled."

Sure, there are people in history who found their own way and we're the better for it, but for every 1000 people that "go against the grain" 999 end up just being people with not enough self awareness and a lack of personal insight.