[lawtguy]

I have three thoughts:

1) Regardless of what Martians want, they'll be heavily economically dependent on Earth. Complex materials, chemicals, drugs, microprocessors, etc. simply won't be manifacturable on Mars for a long time. As long as Martians need these things from Earth, Earthlings will be able to influence their politics by controlling (or threating to control) the flow of goods to Mars. However..

2) Martians will be mostly politically independent in their own affairs. They are simply too far away from Earth to be micromanaged. Additional, Mars has nothing of value to Earth (at least so far), so...

3) Martians will mostly be ignored. There will be a lot of hype and interest at first, but it will quickly fade once the novelty has worn off. Unless and until Martians have something of value for Earth, most Earthling will pay no attention.