[krschultz]

The number of people that are commenting 'I stopped reading after X' is appalling.

When you find something you disagree with coming from a reputable source, shouldn't you be insanely interested in reading it? Contrarian viewpoints are what teach you something you don't already know. Are people coming to HN everyday to get a pile of articles that affirm their world view?

My reaction to the article was a disappointment because most of these are regurgitations of his previous posts. It feels like he is beating a dead horse because to me all of these points are non-controversial. Apparently not.

[benedictevans]

It's a collection in one place of my previous posts - there is nothing at all new here ;)

[roymurdock]

What exactly is your definition of "mobile"? I usually find it helpful when an author sets up a definition of key terms at the outset of an argument.

> When we say 'mobile' we don't mean mobile, just as when we said 'PCs' we didn't mean ‘personal’. ‘Mobile’ isn't about the screen size or keyboard or location or use. Rather, the ecosystem of ARM, iOS and Android, with 10x the scale of ‘Wintel’, will become the new centre of gravity throughout computing. This means that ‘mobile’ devices will take over more and more of what we use ‘PCs’ for, gaining larger screens and keyboards, sometimes, and more and more powerful software, all driven by the irresistible force of a much larger ecosystem, which will suck in all of the investment and innovation.

So if I'm reading this correctly, "mobile" means devices running on simpler hardware and software than traditional desktops or laptops, but running increasingly powerful applications? Regardless of their size and mobility?

And the scale in terms of number of devices in the market will drain investment and innovation away from larger, more powerful hardware and operating systems?

Thanks for writing this up. Just trying to make sure I understand your theses.

[bobajeff]

"the ecosystem of ARM, iOS and Android"

[benedictevans]

Read point 3 and the link below.

[dankoss]

I'm surprised so many at HN disagree. The mobile tech trends he describes are some of the biggest drivers of recent startups. I expected us to be more forward thinking.

[nostrademons]

I disagree because I see new tech trends forming. This is roughly what I would've believed around 2013.

I'm tempted to start a blog with a few of my more out-there predictions & observations - I've got a half dozen posts already written up and saved. But I want to put myself in a position where I can capitalize on the new trends first. Markets are fun because you can literally bet on your predictions of the future. :-)