[mahranch]

> Although on the other hand it really doesn't stand a chance against China's nuclear arsenal.

I beg to differ; According to the U.S government, Japan maintains a latent nuclear program. According to their assessment, Japan can go from "Hey, let's build a nuclear weapon stockpile" to actually having that stockpile in as little as a few months. (Source: http://zidbits.com/2012/02/which-country-is-closest-to-build...)

Germany comes in second place and could have nuclear weapons nearly as quick.

> Or just a cover for not saying "we're preparing for an eventual conflict with China"?

Right now, if North Korea launched a missile at California, Japan would have to watch as it sailed over Tokyo. They legally cannot shoot it down in protection of their ally. Japan wants to change that. They want to be able to protect and assist their allies in more than just a minor supporting role. Japan was there in Iraq and Afghanistan, they just weren't in combat roles. They were there providing medical aid and resupplies.

People (incorrectly) think that Japan is trying to become 1935 imperial Japan again. That's not it - they just want to be like everyone else. Right now, they have less freedom (militaristicaly) than everyone else. Significantly less than Germany too.

[avar]

    > Right now, if North Korea launched a missile
    > at California, Japan would have to watch as
    > it sailed over Tokyo.

This doesn't detract from your general point, but I was curious to see if this particular thing was true.

If you use the "measure distance" tool on Google Maps you can see that even if North Korea launched an ICBM from the southernmost part of their eastern coast to the southernmost part of California it would only intersect Japanese territory by a few miles, at the point of Rebun Island northwest of Hokkaido, something they could trivially avoid. They'd have a much bigger practical problem with having to fly it over Russia than Japan.

In order for its course to go anywhere near Tokyo they'd have to be aiming said ICBM somewhere midway around Argentina, around a thousand miles south of Buenos Aires or so.

Don't let the Mercator projection interfere with your sense of reality.

[Cyberdog]

It doesn't look good that the leadership must constantly "reinterpret" Article 9 to do this, though. Though I don't necessarily disagree that Japan should be beefing up its defense right about now, the whole situation would smell better - and probably have a better result - if the government just rewrote Article 9 out of the Constitution entirely and allowed itself to provision armed forces on the same level as other nations without having to justify everything. (And, for God's sake, just leave the press alone already.)

Maybe the Overton Window just isn't there yet, though.