[bavcyc]

How is the load going to change over time? The passive house movement shows how efficient houses can be built. Also the change from CRT to LED tv's, also change loads. Refrigerators are more efficient than 20 years ago, but can they be made more efficient? Lots of small changes can change the amount of load (for lots of customers (summed)).

The other big issue is how fast can you repair 'own generation?' Utilities typically do a good job in restoring power and assist each other to restore power. Today everyone wants power all the time, 50 years ago power outages were not as much of an issue.