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by tedsanders
3866 days ago
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No no no. A p-value cannot tell you the probability a coin is fair. This is exactly the misconception that makes p-values a bad tool. Suppose I have a coin and flip HHHHH. Can you tell me the probability the coin is fair? No, it's fundamentally unknowable. We can say that a fair coin would have a 3% chance of flipping HHHHH (the p-value), but we can't say with what probability our coin is fair. |
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