[splouk]

> I agree with some of the other comments, it's far too early, and even alarmist, to assume that much worse will come up this. A larger conflict is in no one's interests and is in no one's intent.

Putin is not known for his soft heart and willingness to let bygones be bygones.

[ckozlowski]

While I wouldn't characterize him as having a "soft heart" either, I never got the impression that he's so simplistic as to want to retaliate in any situation. The Russians are not stupid.

I don't think for a moment that any side didn't envision this as a possibility. When you're flying sorties, there's going to be accidents. With this many borders involved and a NATO power next door, the risk only became larger. While it's serious, it's not like Russia didn't know these risks beforehand. They saw this possibility before they got involved. Doesn't mean they won't be happy about it, but I guarantee a Turkish response was at least thought about.

[dragonwriter]

> While I wouldn't characterize him as having a "soft heart" either, I never got the impression that he's so simplistic as to want to retaliate in any situation.

Of course not, that's why the Russians initially tried to deescalate by publicly attributing the downing to Syrian rebels, not Turkey; however, now that Turkey has made that impossible (for which, given the recent series of Russian intrusions since the campaign in Syria began, they had pretty strong domestic reasons), the Russian leadership's room to deescalate while maintain an image (particularly a domestic image) of strength is narrowed.

[emp_zealoth]

What are the russians going to do? Start a nuclear war over some ego smear? They could have not done that. It's been an issue for months. Unless there will actually be a major conflict now, I think it's the best thing that could have happened. The russians are now in a corner - whatever they do short of going WWII Japan will be a loosing move.

[camelNotation]

Putin isn't soft, but he also isn't a fool. He's managed to actually conquer and hold territory (Crimea and East Ukraine) in the post-Cold War world through a mixture of rhetoric, propaganda, and timing. Not only that, but he did so while managing a corrupt Russian oligarchy and increasingly unhappy Russian people in the post-Communist era.

Putin is a brilliant tactician. That is why he is in the position he is in. He isn't going to retaliate against NATO for a downed jet, but I am also going to wager that at the end of all the reporting and global discussion about this incident, he will come out looking stronger. That's the kind of leader he is, hate him or love him.

[jon-wood]

Maybe, but if he retaliates against Turkey NATO get dragged into it because of existing treaties. While Putin may not be the most forgiving of people I don't think he's going to trigger World War III over a single jet getting shot down over someone else's airspace.

[NiftyFifty]

Second that motion. The main deal here, is violation of air space, because Turkey is a moderate (by and large, which is debatable) Islamic Muslim state and provocation in the area has RUN terse for decades because of the pro-Russian+Syrian agenda/backing. I don't blame either part, considering how tense Russia is with the Muslim world in the first place - with exception noting Iran, which is Persian (like the emo kid in the class). Just look north to Chechnya and you can easily link/stroke in bits of issue across the region by the suppression and integration attempts with Russian people in that area alone. Regardless, a blip and nobody died. Russia just lost a 500 million dollar investment. Should end fairly quickly.