[honestcoyote]

Russia's initial reaction was to place the blame on insurgents and not Turkey. Even after Turkey claimed responsibility, Russia essentially said: "Are you sure? We really think it was the rebels. Hint. Hint." [1]

So that's pretty telling. Russia showed a willingness to sweep this under the table but Turkey wouldn't let them.

[1] http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2015/nov/24/russian-je...

"President Putin is reportedly readying a statement. On Russian state television, there was little discussion of the Turkish claim they had shot the plane down, with anchors and analysts speculating that the Su-24 could have been shot down by rebels with anti-aircraft weapons. This chimes with the Russian Defence Ministry’s claim that the plane was shot down from the ground, but completely contradicts the Turkish statement that an F-16 from its airforce shot the plane down."

[ckozlowski]

I thought that was rather interesting as well. It was only till Putin got on the air that they acknowledged it was a Turkish F-16.

There's differing opinions here on what the best course is to take on IS, though the one thing Russia and the west seem to agree on is that the Syrian state needs to be reestablished. Bombs from the air won't defeat IS; only a functional state will.

Russia is betting that Assad is Syria's best chance, and so they're bombing rebels. The west is betting the rebels are better in place to rule Syria, and so they're bombing IS to keep them off the rebels, but more importantly, giving the rebels a bit of air cover (no-fly zone or not, the Syrian Air Force is not about to test the presence of western aircraft over Syrian territory. The west simply needs to "be there".)

Russia is not keen on seeing their man in Syria (and by extension, their only base west of the Bosperous) vanish, though they seem to be conceding a bit in that they've acknowledged he could go in a managed transition. I dunno what impact this event will have on any of this.

[knowaveragejoe]

Putin came out and strongly condemned the strikes and implied it would have serious consequences for already-strained Turkish-Russian relations.

In reality I don't think it will change much, but Putin needs to keep up face with his population.

[norea-armozel]

I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility. Is he still trying to pull them out of the NATO fold? Or is Germany still stringing Turkey along for the possibility of an EU/EC membership?

[honestcoyote]

Because Putin doesn't want to see tensions rise and have the situation go out of his control. There's nothing for him to gain by blaming Turkey or be pushed into a direct confrontation with NATO. I mean, he seems to enjoy pushing NATO & the EU's buttons. But he tends to do so when he feels like he has control over the situation.

Blaming the rebels would bolster his plans in Syria and probably make it an easier sell. Might have been best for Turkey to also allow the rebels to be blamed. The Kremlin would still get Turkey's message loud and clear, but there wouldn't be any public conflict with unpredictable consequences.

[venomsnake]

Because deescalation is the wise choice. Anyway the Turkey of today is not the country that was accepted in NATO. Which complicates stuff immensely.

Turkey is a rogue state now, with very fast islamisation going on that is protected by the NATO treaties. Bad combination.

[dragonwriter]

> I wonder why Putin is trying to give Turkey an exit out of responsibility.

Because doing so would allow Putin to look strong against those who did the shooting down by redoubling efforts in Syria against the rebels, while that doesn't work if Turkey is seen to be the one that did the shoot down. Putin doesn't want to give Turkey an out so much as Putin wants to give Putin an out.