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by geoffwoo 3867 days ago
Very low margin business. As a multiple of net revenue, it's at the high range of comparable payment processors.
3 comments

A combination of things - a super old/competitive market (processing), the ever changing risk dynamics and Square's targeting

Let me illustrate points 1 and 2 with an example.

a) Square earns $2 in revenue per $100 of transaction volume b) $0.5 would be their gross margin accounting for expenses i.e. bank/visa fees c) The next biggest line item to subtract would be risk. If there is a fraudulent transaction of $100, then square has to compensate it with 200 transactions of $100 each. (200 txns *0.5 gross margin). Net effect is not only do they have to deal with low margins, they also have to manage risk very well. And this is not something you accomplish overnight especially as you enter new markets. Personal anecdote: I had $120 or so disappear from my Starbucks wallet a couple of months ago and the merchant had to eat the loss.

Lastly, large payment processors get out of this loop because they manage the big (Targets and Walmarts of the world) with the small and over time have fine tuned their risk engine. Square went into it in the reverse order, targeting mom-and-pop stores first (which have low volumes and high acquisition costs) and then trying their hand at large merchants (Startbucks in this case and they lost a ton doing this). In the process they never got risk management right for either segment.

My 2c.

Their net revenue should be about 100 bps, and their loss is 16 bps, at least for 2015.
And revenue growth prospects aren't all that high?
Not when you're competing against every other payment processor.
What were supposed to be Square's differentiating features? What competitive edge is being hyped?
30-35% margins are exceptional in this type of business.