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by zzalpha 3878 days ago
No, the $4 Billion in revenue was last quarter. In other words $48/user annually, not to mention the huge growth of even that number. That's why its market cap is ~$300 Billion.

Yup, that's my bad, sorry.

That said, unless they can continue to grow that number, their trajectory is based on subscriber growth, and that must necessarily flatten out.

Profit alone is just a bad way to value quickly growing companies

Agreed.

But a company that can't not lose money is not well positioned.

And the fact that Twitter's growth trajectory has flattened out only makes me more nervous.

In most cities they're not "illegal contract workers" even today

You're right.

They're illegal across the country according to federal labor regulations.

Uber and its ilk are almost certainly illegally classifying their workforce as contractors when they should be employees. It's actually a really easy line to cross, and if you ever work as an independent contractor, it's worth familiarizing yourself with the regulations as it obviously has significant tax implications, among other things.

This is the basis for this class action: http://uberlawsuit.com/

When that hammer comes down, Uber's profits will evaporate. They're also very likely to face similar legal action in other countries with similar labor protections (e.g. Canada).

And that's ignoring their violating taxi regulations all over the place (though I admit I have more sympathy for them in that regard, as I generally view those regulations as anti-competitive).

1 comments

Sure ... but ... what about the fact that consumers fucking LOVE to use Uber & Lyft? It's like marijuana or potato chips made of heroin. People can't get enough of that shit.

How popular will the politicians (e.g. state attorney generals) who push to destroy those businesses be with consumers/voters?

We don't have to look around very hard to see laws/regulations that go unenforced because politicians/regulators fear voter backlash.

Sure ... but ... what about the fact that consumers fucking LOVE to use Uber & Lyft?

People also LOVE cheap clothes and electronics.

And yet, we all seem to generally agree that sweatshops and child labour are maybe not worth it just to get a novelty t-shirt or an iPhone at low low prices.

How popular will the politicians (e.g. state attorney generals) who push to destroy those businesses be with consumers/voters?

I don't think you understand.

These laws already exist.

If Uber loses, and odds are pretty damn good they will, they'll lose in the courts. This doesn't require an attorney general or a politician. All this requires is a willing lawyer to launch a class action, which has already happened, and a court system willing to enforce the law even if it's unpopular. Boy, I can't imagine when that last happened...

The only option, if they want to preserve their existing business model, is for Uber would then be to lobby the government to turn back the very labor laws that protect everyone from exploitation by their employers, while very fundamentally changing a key part of the tax code.

All to ensure folks can get a cheap car ride.

Good luck with that.

In reality, the solution will almost certainly be for Uber to allow drivers to set their own rates, which might clear them (maybe... see https://www.irs.gov/Businesses/Small-Businesses-&-Self-Emplo...). That'll almost certainly cause rate inflation and destroy one of Uber's key competitive advantages. It could also lead to uncontrolled surge pricing as drivers would naturally inflate their rates during rush periods.

Could they survive that? Maybe. Assuming the taxi regulations don't kill them, as we're seeing overseas.

But sweatshops are often where our cheap clothes and electronics actually come from right now despite everyone's agreement that they're bad.

Also, I'm not sure what would make you think that I do not understand that these laws already exist. I mentioned a state attorney general precisely because an attorney general enforces/ignores existing laws.

But, sure, you make an excellent point about the very real lawsuits which have already been filed.

Reading the rest of your response, your assessment seems to be that maybe Uber can survive. That's what I think too.