[mseebach]

It's also not an argument that it will. I'm not saying it won't, but I find flaw with the argument that because it happened before, it will necessarily happen again, in a substantially similar way. Generals are always preparing to fight the last war.

Something will probably happen, but I don't think it's reasonable to expect that looking at 2000 will teach us much about that something. Silicon Valley is a substantially different place today from what it was during the dot-com years. While not all (few, if any) unicorns are financially healthy in any traditional sense, they all have plausible business plans, ie. ones that involves booking actual revenue from delivering actual services to actual customers for actual money. The dot-com victims almost comically did not. The investors in the valley today are sophisticated and institutional, all weathered through the dot-com bust, not mom-and-pops -- much less sensitive to small bumps and panics, again a very different environment from 2000.