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It seems unlikely to me that future generations will be able to benefit from programming understanding and ability the way the programmers of today have. Economic value lies in scarcity, and as we are now pushing for everyone to have those skills, it will not be scarce anymore. The programmers of today have been lucky because the thing they loved to do anyway just happened to explode as an industry in a short period of time, leaving only a small supply of labour ready to fill the ballooning demand. There is no reason to think that will hold for the future. As every good investor will tell you, when everyone starts looking in the same direction, it is time to run the other way. Some suggest that programming is something that only a small group of people can innately do. Others suggest that it is a task that the majority of the population detest. If these are true, then perhaps it will remain a viable career as most cannot or refuse to do what work needs to be done. I'm not sure I agree with either point. Programming tools like Excel are widely used already by the general population, demonstrating that they can program, that they are willing to program in some capacity, and that it doesn't meaningfully improve their economic standing when outside of a very narrow spectrum of programming – specifically what we seem to call software engineering. I, personally, think programming related work will eventually trend towards what we see in entertainment, agriculture, etc. A small group of people will do very well, more will do the work for practically nothing just to do what they love, and everyone else will have no direct opportunity whatsoever, with, at best, passing relevance in what they do end up doing. |