[Retric]

That sounds great, but, we don't have a huge exponential growth rate or short lifespans.

So, you can easily end up with vastly more people with 25+ years’ experience than <5 years’ experience. That's not a problem for programing or electricians, but for highly physical skills your body breaks down and you don't need 3 supervisors for every worker. For some jobs older workers are simply worse.

Now, with a solid general education these people can move on to less physically demanding work, but trying to plan out the economy 40 years into the future is a bad idea.

[mcguire]

"So, you can easily end up with vastly more people with 25+ years’ experience than <5 years’ experience."

That seems to be false in practice.

[Retric]

Depends on the field. This does happen in fields with low turnover and high longevity. The point is if you want to railroad people into apprenticeship programs you need to limit it to fields that people can do for 30+ years.

Otherwise as I said in a different post you end up handing out medical disability early retirements to lots of people which is extremely expensive.