[Mz]

* In the abstract, economic sense, a 30% chance of making $1M is as good as a 3% chance of making $30M is as good as a 0.3% chance at making $300M*

I think the math works mathematically in a very abstract sense but has zero basis in reality.

From what I gather, taking VC money helps improve success rates in part because the process of applying for the money is a valuable experience wrt clarifying what your business is all about, what your goals are, etc AND VCs typically serve as experienced consultants that help guide you.

So I will suggest that if you want success without the financial strings attached of taking VC money, you should try to replicate those parts of the process.