[glesica]

People like Warren Buffet talk about things being "mis-priced" all the time, that's how people like him make money. So yes, some risk might be priced in, but how much, and how accurately? In some cases, investors may have a very good idea of how much risk a venture entails, in other cases they may think they have a good idea but be completely wrong. The market price is, yes, the market price, that's a tautology. Whether the market price reflects a sustainable reality is an entirely different matter.

The parenthetical in my original comment was important. If everyone thinks they know what is going on, and they're all wrong, then the price isn't a good reflection of reality.