[ZenoArrow]

> "Fertility has fallow to near- or below-replacement rate everywhere in the world"

What do you expect is causing this? Isn't a large part of the reason for this due to changes in society rather than a synchronised biological trend? For example, couples choosing to have children later, if at all.

If the reasons are social rather than biological, then there's no reason why birth rates (I'm using the term birth rates as it's a more general term for what we're considering) can't increase in the future. The view that overpopulation is a non-problem seems to be based on wishful thinking and/or short-sighted analysis.

[MC7447a]

> What do you expect is causing this?

- enormous reduction in child mortality - increased female emancipation and economic opportunities - (direct and opportunity) costs of child-raising becomes relatively larger when societies get richer

I don't expect any of those trends to reverse itself

> If the reasons are social rather than biological, then there's no reason why birth rates can't increase in the future.

Sure, and there's no reason why the worldwide decrease cant' accelerate further either. The only question is, why do you think some scenario is more likely than the other?

> The view that overpopulation is a non-problem seems to be based on wishful thinking and/or short-sighted analysis.

To me the view that population increase is/will be some huge problem seems to be continuously redressing the Malthusian nonsense that's been wrong for over 2 centuries

[ZenoArrow]

> "- enormous reduction in child mortality - increased female emancipation and economic opportunities - (direct and opportunity) costs of child-raising becomes relatively larger when societies get richer

I don't expect any of those trends to reverse itself"

Those aren't the only trends that matter. How about:

* Reduction in working hours/increased leisure time.

* Possibility for development of life extension technology (so long as this comes with an increased window of opportunity for raising kids).

* Changes to family structures (for example, an increase in popularity in tribe-like family structures, which reduces the burden on individual carers).

The point is if birth rate is only slowing down because of how our society currently is, then birth rate predictions are based on that society staying the same, and we have no guarantee of that being the case. Even if you think it's unlikely to change in the near future, humans will hopefully be living on Earth for thousands of years to come. If you were born 1000 years ago, do you believe you could predict how society would turn out in 2015?