[venning]

Agreed. And I didn't mean to sound grim.

Markets tend to be efficient in the long-term and inefficient in the short-term as it is still determining how to place capital and whatnot based on new information. I feel like our industry (software, and technology generally) understands that well, even if implicitly. It's just that those "inefficiencies" are often real people and the "short-term" means being unemployed or unemployable for a while.

It's important to innovate and to do so boldly, but to also not be cavalier with how that innovation affects a world that was spinning long before that innovation was conceived of. Not to say that you or anyone else on this thread is doing so, I just wish to point it out.

[ska]

  "short-term" means being unemployed or unemployable for a while.

If you add the caveat that "for a while" might in practice equal "several generations" for comparable employment, this is true. See for ex. industrial revolution.

The hard truth is that to the degree that these things do work as a simplistic free market model might predict (and that is clearly arguable) they may operate on time scales that will do nothing to alleviate to problems the changes cause.

[venning]

Very true and very scary. The sad thing is that regulatory protection often makes matters worse by insulating people from changing realities. That causes the inevitable collapse of that protection to create an even greater shock to those who had been protected.

[coryfklein]

> See for ex. industrial revolution.

I was not aware that the industrial revolution caused unemployment that lasted for generations. Can you provide a link for further study of this?

[newjersey]

It is one thing to provide short-term support for carriage drivers and ship cargo loaders when mechanization renders their jobs useless. It is a different matter when existing big businesses stand in the way of progress.

Would you support laws that would slow down the growth of digital cameras in the late nineties and early noughties so Kodak could continue to sell celluloid? I bet a lot of people were affected by that change. Where is the smooth transition for them?

[venning]

The interesting thing about the particular examples in this thread--local taxi companies, hotel franchises, dealer franchises--is that none of them are in fact "big businesses". If Uber and AirBnB and Tesla succeed, they will all be considerably larger than any other player in those spaces. They will be the big businesses.

Personally, I have no interest in protecting businesses. I have an interest in protecting competition. I like the disruption and I like the creating of new value that they bring. I just also feel for the individuals who often are so vigorously disrupted.

[newjersey]

I'd argue that dealership model does not necessarily promote competition. If I want a Ford Focus, Ford still dictates what kind of car I get. Sure, the dealership may try to make a few hundred dollars by (unnecessarily) adding "value" to the car with floor mats and halogen lamps but what kind of car I get and at what price is a decision Ford makes.

The problem I have with the dealerships is that they are saying Tesla can't sell cars directly. This is incredibly stupid. Sure, you could say Ford can't set up a store because that'd be like having a Starbucks corporate store right next door to a franchise they authorized. However, if I wanted to create New Jersey's Best Coffee (don't buy my coffee, although there is Best in the name it will be horrible) I should be able to open my own coffee shop with no regard to whatever agreements there have been about coffee shops before. I mean it is one thing to say that my coffee shop should meet health safety requirements (such as not lacing my coffee with poison) and other sensible requirements such as not selling anything with the label "USDA Organic" unless it is USDA Organic.

> I just also feel for the individuals who often are so vigorously disrupted.

Are you talking about the employees? I feel for the Rite Aid and Duane Reade employees more than I feel for the car salespeople. I honestly believe that successful car salespeople have the qualities that will help them land on their feet in any situation. So they will be alright. We will eventually have to seriously discuss the idea of a universal basic income but that is for another conversation.

[carsalesthrowaw]

> I honestly believe that successful car salespeople have the qualities that will help them land on their feet in any situation. So they will be alright.

For one guy I know this isn't true. He was a very good salesman of [a product], but eventually its economics changed, and after that, he couldn't find a job he wouldn't get fired at. Until car sales. I couldn't tell you why -- he's not a jerk or an idiot -- my best guess is that there's some level of generic "being an employee at a company" behaviors we take for granted (meeting long-term commitments, knowing the product) that just don't happen for him.