[TillE]

They won't. They're an absurd impracticality anywhere outside of Silicon Valley (suburban homes, no weather ever), and completely unnecessary even in those ideal conditions.

People are excited because they're cool toys, not because it actually solves a problem.

[pj_mukh]

When the naysayers abound, you know things are about to get off the ground. Parcel delivery starting in NZ (http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&o...). My bet is that this technology will most likely start small (see: unsexy) and incrementally improve the technology (battery, airframe, autonomy) and regulations, while Amazon and Wal-mart keep promising the moon.

[woah]

In cities it seems like a good idea. Millions of customers are within drone range in Manhattan. Drop packages on a building's roof, a doorman brings them down to the front desk, there you go. It can take several hours to drive a delivery across Manhattan at rush hour.

As for the range, electric cars mean that batteries are receiving a lot more development and economies of scale, plus people have been working on package switching networks for years already now.

Is it going to happen tomorrow? No. But Walmart can afford to be in it for the long haul.

[BinaryIdiot]

I can't disagree with you enough. This will be a huge game changer. Sure, it won't change things a ton for the consumer (many times do you really need that item the same day or is 1-2 days okay to wait?) but for the retail companies that adapt this is going to be HUGE.

Yes drones are impractical right now but we have just begun using them (they're still incredibly new). Battery technology will improve, drones will get better. By investing in the technology now you can work through it, find what works best, iterate and repeat with small subsets of customers. When drones become more cost effective and efficient you'll be ready and already serving products this way. Years later you may even close many of your retail stores. Why would you need them? People can use their phone, order something and have it just come to them. Logistics can be reworked incredibly so they can hold more inventory at less locations (thus lowering the overall inventory hold).

It's not going to happen today or tomorrow but 5-10 years? Drones are going to save companies billions of dollars on retail locations. Sounds crazy today sure but don't bet against technology.

[nsgi]

> many times do you really need that item the same day or is 1-2 days okay to wait?

How many people use Amazon Prime? Clearly a few days makes a big difference to a lot of people.

[BinaryIdiot]

> Clearly a few days makes a big difference to a lot of people.

It certainly does hence why I mentioned 1-2 days assuming everyone was someone who does 2 day at the most :)

I'd imagine more people care about getting it in 1-2 days versus 3-5 days but I'm not sure how many care about the time difference in getting it same day. Sure people care but I feel like the bigger business opportunity is slimming down the inventory and retail presence.

[lujim]

"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value." -- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre. 1911

"Anyone who fights, even with the most modern weapons, against an enemy who dominates the air, is like a primitive warrior who stands against modern forces, with the same limitations and the same chance of success." -- Field Marshal Erwin Rommel

[hayksaakian]

When I can get a product faster by ordering online than driving to a store it will be a game changer.

Imagine: saving the 30 minute to 1 hour round trip to a store, or waiting half the time for a driver to wade through traffic at peak hours.

[jahewson]

I already save the 30 minute trip to the store by ordering online. So all the drone would offer me is to save a few days shipping time (or, back when I lived in the UK, one day. Oh and supermarket delivery is common there too.), which frankly isn't something I'm going to pay much for most of the time. I only drive to the store if I don't know what I'm going to buy and I want to browse in person.

[ergothus]

"all the drone would offer me is to save a few days shipping time"

That's exactly what some (many?) of us want!

[aianus]

> which frankly isn't something I'm going to pay much for most of the time

The drones are going to be cheaper than the UPS guy, not more expensive.

[Splines]

I would honestly be surprised if this was the case, at least for the end customer.

At best we'll see immediate drone delivery as an incremental surcharge or a value-add for a subscription service (Prime).

[hayksaakian]

drones can only get cheaper over time.

employees need to eat in 2015, and 2016 and 2017, etc.

[pbhjpbhj]

So we get our new gadgets on a few hours for less cost to the company, more dollar-cost to us, and in return we have more unemployed people so pay more taxes.

I'm really not a Luddite; we need to find ways to put the tech development focus on things that benefit society as a whole.

/rant

[aembleton]

Amazon are already offering 1 hour delivery [1] in certain locations. I think just London and a few cities in the US. Argos have also rolled out same day delivery [2] for £3.95, if you order before 6pm. This seems to be available for quite a bit of their inventory across the UK. It's not one hour delivery but getting close and the price is pretty good.

1. http://www.amazon.co.uk/b/ref=pn_uk_surl_lp?node=6584642031 2. http://www.argos.co.uk/static/ArgosPromo3/includeName/fast-t...

[Someone1234]

Indeed. Even ignoring the total impracticality of them, you can also look at just energy issues.

In order for drones to be cost effective, they need to stay in the air for minimum the full trip out and back from the home, but if you look at the location of most big warehouses (e.g. Amazon, Walmart) they're built outside of big cities for cost reasons, so now you have to fly twice as far to deliver packages onto the opposite side of the city.

So either the FAA will need to allow liquid fuel drones (gas, diesel, etc) which have their own safety issues, or they'll need to be extremely large to hold enough batteries. Plus the recharge time of batteries will also be an issue.

I think weather and safety are their biggest detractors, but I think energy problems are next on that list. All these companies keep doing is pumping out press releases but without any specific details about how far their drones can travel, under what conditions, etc.

I'd short sell anyone who announced they're going to invest in making this work. It is fine as a pet project and to get some publicity, but if they start throwing millions behind it, I'm betting against them and it.

[georgeloring]

> but if you look at the location of most big warehouses (e.g. Amazon, Walmart) they're built outside of big cities for cost reasons, so now you have to fly twice as far to deliver packages onto the opposite side of the city.

90% of all Americans live within 15 miles of a Walmart. If they were able to launch drones from their store locations it might address this concern.

[Reedx]

Wow, I assumed that was a guesstimate, but it's the actual stat! Crazy.

http://www.statisticbrain.com/wal-mart-company-statistics/

[chongli]

but if you look at the location of most big warehouses (e.g. Amazon, Walmart) they're built outside of big cities for cost reasons, so now you have to fly twice as far to deliver packages onto the opposite side of the city

Big warehouses are dependent upon current transportation technology (trucks and big cargo ships). If drones become feasible, there's no reason we couldn't move to decentralized (retail-scale) warehousing serviced by drones.