I wonder if universal basic income is going to change the ad hoc basic income we already have in place -- the one where I'm supporting my retired parents, my wife, and my pre-workforce kid.
As an economic entity China has a ton of submerged problems and I don't think their 'solutions' to any problem will easily transplant to the rest of the world without accepting a bunch of their other problems into the package as well.
It happens also in Hong Kong as well and is an intentional policy of the government. There is also a small HKD$1000 per month and is only intended as a subsidy. I note Hong Kong has one of the lowest personal income tax rates in the world.
But if you can't then society should be right there and without such a catch-net people will have children to support them, not because they actually want children (they simply see them as an economic asset and a pension plan).
I strongly suspect that UBI will result in a net decrease in the birth rate wherever it is implemented.
For the record, I supported my mom for some years because (1) I could and (2) she needed it but if she could have kept herself afloat she would have definitely chosen that path instead (she got hit with a brain hemorrhage (sp?) and needed to go back to work long before she was physically able to).
When you're old, too old to work, someone will need to work to support you.
I'm sceptical that the anglophone world has it so figured out.
In Britain we have the pension system. In America the mechanism is rising asset prices.
In Britain the pension system is falling apart under the weight of demographic change -- pensions are by far the largest public expense, and the age to qualify is rising. I doubt I will ever get a pension.
In America, there is the opposite problem. People are supposed to put their money into the stock market (via a 401k). The idea is that equity prices go up over time at a rate exceeding inflation, so if you're old you can sell your assets to the people saving now -- for a profit.
The problem with this, is that it doesn't always work that way. The Nikkei hit its all-time high in 1989. The S&P sat in a two decade funk from 1970 to 1990.
So all we've done is add more layers of abstraction. Instead of your children supporting you, now everyone's children are supporting you, and instead of supporting you out of filial love, they hate your very existence.
Why can it not be the story of individual failure? It is not for no reason the fable of the Ant & the Grasshopper is a staple of western civilization. When corporations are bailed out for their poor decisions, it is reviled as moral hazard and considered to set a precedent of rewarding reckless behavior. Why not apply the same standards to individuals?
That philosophy is directly responsible for overpopulation. If you need to have children to keep from starving to death when you're old, you'll want to have a lot of them.
Note that the areas where this is true are precisely the ones with catastrophically high birth rates, and the areas where there are pensions, social programs, etc. are precisely the ones where population is stable, or even falling.
> Note that the areas where this is true are precisely the ones with catastrophically high birth rates, and the areas where there are pensions, social programs, etc. are precisely the ones where population is stable, or even falling.
And then those countries with pensions and falling population are mentioned as ones who need to import immigrants in order to keep their pension pyramid scheme working...
Are any of the people who keep modding this down able to provide a counterexample (i.e., a country where the "social safety net" consists of having lots of children that doesn't have a big population problem)?