[Asa-Nisse]

The problem is really stated in the article. As prices worldwide goes up the incentive to pump up more expensive sources of oil increases.

However, the price of transporting and fertilizing food is not a cost we really have the luxury of tampering with. 1 Billion people live on a dollar or less, since those same people are very effected by the food price it's them that pay the highest price of dearer oil.

[mortenjorck]

1. Price goes up -> 2. production increases -> 3. supply outstrips demand -> 4. price goes down -> 5. production decreases -> 6. demand outstrips supply -> loop to 1

This is how the cycle has always gone throughout the oil age and how it will always continue until oil is made obsolete.

Oil obsolete? Steps 1 and 6, fortunately, are where the alternative energy advances are always made. While not continuous, they are cumulative (despite occasional attempts to distort this alternative market by incumbent forces).

Ultimately alternative energy will win, the scrappy startups will evolve into fat-cat incumbents, and then their markets will follow the same six-step cycle above, just like oil.

[Asa-Nisse]

How will you make fertilizer from alternative energy?

That said, I dont think its a cause for worry right now, but it will be a issue in the future.

[evgen]

The Haber-Bosch process creates ammonia (a solution that can then be oxidized to create nitrates and nitrites) by passing nitrogen from the air and hydrogen, currently stripped from hydrocarbons, over an iron catalyst. If a "hydrogen economy" were to actually appear this same H2 would be used to produce ammonia (and you could actually cut out several steps in the current process that are necessary to eliminate any trace of carbon monoxide during the conversion of methane into H2, CO2, and water.) If alternative energy can be used to create hydrogen in a cost-effective manner then you are golden as far as fertilizer is concerned.