|
Impossible task because the subject in my domain (finance) changes so soften. Is it New Gingrich shutting down the government today? Is it Bank of America losing its shirt in Detroit? Or is it Greece failing to pay its debt? Or is is it Glencore overleveraged on commodities? Maybe it's China devaluing! The only common denominator, in my experience, is not to try your best to be the first. The first is usually a computer, and that trend is only growing. What you want to do, and this is a time honored principle, is to really think about what you want to say, before you say it, and make sure you know the unique aspects of what you're saying. Paul Tudor, like most AAA people, is hammered every second with the main-line thinking. His attention is only piqued with things that are oblique to the mainstream view. (notice that I use the word "oblique", not necessarily "orthogonal", because there are many unsubtle people who take the idea too far ie: "I want attention so will go wild with my thinking". You must never underestimate the extent to which high end people have seen it all before and have defences against charlatans). Your best bet is to be really honest with yourself, about what you're saying that's different but not crazy, make sure you can back up your claims, at least intellectually (the market often does not have time for proof), and make that the key point of your piece, upfront in the subject line/headline. Then, be prepared to defend your standpoint, with credible arguments. No sloppiness allowed. Your 10 seconds turned into 5 minutes! Don't screw them up by not knowing your facts. |
That reminds me of a recent article (which I can't find again) that talked about the "optimal distance" between prevailing fashion and a new trend, based on studies of trend-setters.