[mollmerx]

I have a hunch that this may play out in a similar way the Scottish Independence Referendum did last year.

It is in the interest of business and the elite to stay in, while there is significant popular opinion and some small businesses that want out.

If in the run up to the actual vote things are looking close, as they did in Scotland, the side campaigning to stay in will wheel out the big shots (former PMs, captains of industry etc.) and throw money at the problem - resulting, I suspect, in a narrow win to stay in.

Right now we don't even have a date for the referendum, so it's too early to be expending resources like that.