[AndrewKemendo]

That assumes that intelligence agencies are not utilizing betting markets.

In fact there was a big push in 2010 to build a betting market type system for analysis across the Intelligence Community. It is not used 100% of the time but has some measure of success where applied.

When I was in the IC I actually built a hypothesis estimation tool based on the Delphi method and a Bayesian updater to give probabilities for future events, crowdsourcing the votes from the community. Worked ok in our limited run, but needed a lot more work to implement really well.