Did you consider the possibility that taxes on cigarettes are intended as an incentive to stop smoking and thereby lower the health care costs of treating long term smokers' various ailments?
Yes, but are you assuming that all tax districts had the same thinking? The situation I'm referring to up in the Northwest US, as I recall, was not considering that. Plus I'm sure there are other examples of budgets being based on taxes that didn't pan out, leaving a deficit in the budget.