[crdoconnor]

>Natural gas will stick around until utility scale batteries ramp up, to where peaking plants are too expensive compared to utility scale batteries.

There's another possibility which is that there will be an overbuild of solar and wind caused by a clean energy boom (ZIRP already did this to oil; where is that ROI-hungry risk capital going to look for returns next?).

The market will then figure out ways of putting the large irregular surpluses of electricity to use. For example, generating fuel as mentioned below, or running adjustable output aluminum smelting plants.

I think the opportunities opened up by periodic bouts of practically free electricity which have already started to occur have been vastly understated. People just look at the other side of the equation - probably because oil/utility companies have tried to keep us fixated upon it.

I think the most optimistic part of all of this, though, is the implications for democracy and peace. When the age of oil finally expires (and it is nearing a close) there won't be any way to put a chokehold on supplies of energy with raw military power.

This is probably the only thing, in fact, that could actually lead to lasting peace in the middle east, which has been plagued by the resource curse for a century or so.

[jnwrd]

Periodic bouts of practically free electricity make water desalination much more attractive.

Perhaps you even get a stabilizing mechanism where: drought ~ high solar output -> cheap electricity -> water desalination -> eliminates drought problems.

[toomuchtodo]

I have high hopes that practically free energy leads us to post scarcity.

[puranjay]

My parents live in a part of India where summer temperatures routinely hit 45C (113F). Because electricity is expensive and my parents' house is quite large, they couldn't afford to run air-conditioning for more than 8-10 hours a day - usually at night.

Whenever I would go home, the heat would completely wreck my productivity. I would have to sequester myself in the coolest room in the house, then judiciously use the air conditioning to maintain some semblance of sanity.

Then my dad got fed up and took advantage of a government subsidy to buy solar panels.

It was expensive initially, but now we essentially have free power. We'll break even in terms of costs within 4 years.

We now run air conditioning when we want, wherever we want.

The increase in productivity is massive. I no longer have to deal with heat when I go home.

Now imagine this happening for billions of people living in tropical climates.

It's going to change the contour of the world

[eru]

> We'll break even in terms of costs within 4 years.

That means a loan of up to 25% interest could have financed the solar panels. Are interest rates higher than that for your parents?

> The increase in productivity is massive. I no longer have to deal with heat when I go home. > Now imagine this happening for billions of people living in tropical climates

For what it's worth, the GDP per capita of Singapore used to track the introduction of air conditioning. Not sure what's cause and what's effect, or coincidence.

[PhantomGremlin]

practically free energy

We've heard that before, as far back as 1954: "too cheap to meter". The problem is, even if the incremental generation of electricity is practically free, there are still large costs in building the windmills and solar panels. And there are large distribution costs as well.

In addition, the more cheap energy there is, the more inefficiently people will use it. Why bother with things like Energy Star and LEED? Just build inefficient power supplies and poorly insulated buildings. After all, it is "practically free" to heat them and cool them.

Post scarcity energy is a non-starter. Consumption will always increase as necessary. Here's an even more crazy example: just how much bitcoin (or similar) mining would there be if energy were cheap? It's already a disgusting misuse of resources, it would be a lot worse!

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Too_cheap_to_meter

[toomuchtodo]

You're free to your pessimism :) I've got another 50 years of life to be hopeful.

Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in 5 minutes to power the world for a year. That's effectively limitless.

[SideburnsOfDoom]

> Enough sunlight falls on the Earth in 5 minutes to power the world for a year.

At current levels, and that's the point of the parent comment.

> That's effectively limitless.

It's 0.0000095 or so. Impressive but not limitless. An earth in which all the infalling sunlight was used for power would be a dark place, which would be bad for people and for agriculture. And oxygen production. So actually lot less than that.

[task_queue]

Post scarcity isn't much of a boon to society if it is constrained in the hands of the few. Especially if power is derived from scarcity.

[jes5199]

A case could be made that we're already post-scarcity.

[toomuchtodo]

Close. We're very close. Renewables and electric transportation gets us very far. Automated farming and 3D printing or automated assembly of housing will be the last step.

"The future is already here — it's just not very evenly distributed." -- William Gibson