[0xcde4c3db]

I'd think that the biggest sign (though arguably a sign that a technology has already become commoditized) is when you see a leading vendor explicitly announcing/advertising a price cut. At that point, the story they're telling is concretely shifting away from the narrative of "our technology is uniquely suited to your needs" and toward "we can give you more widgets per dollar than the other guy".

Example: GoPro. They recently announced a substantial price cut, and their stock took a pretty big hit in the wake of that announcement.

[enraged_camel]

Absolutely. And once the leading vendor cuts the price, it becomes a race to the bottom.