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by chipsy 3914 days ago
This is a "spiky version of the present" future - all the prominent things seen by one individual, extrapolated linearly. As such it has a discontinuous shape.

The main element I would critique is in the culture. Culture in 2015 will feel old and dated by 2030 - our memes, our artisan craft breweries and hip indie games. Something else will overtake them. Culture has the soft power to change people's perception of reality even as the substance of that reality remains more stagnant. And culture isn't directly associated to a new tech so much as it is the proliferation of that tech.

For example: "Drone" today equates to big war machines dropping bombs. "Drone" tomorrow could mean the kid across the street with a new toy and the ensuing shenanigans inflicted on stodgy 50-year-olds who think you're going to blow everything up.

2 comments

Exactly. It is very hard to make credible predictions for longer period of time, but linear extrapolation normally works for 2 to 5 year scope http://liuliu.me/eye/predicting-future-2016/
>tomorrow could mean the kid across the street with a new toy

Or you know, more destruction and loss of life for unfortunate countries, constant policing for developed countries, a huge blow to the people's ability to protest and do demonstrations, etc...