[corkill]

Internet stocks were trading at all-time highs in 1999. Housing was doing great in 2006. Any asset being at all-time highs doesn't mean there are negligible risks only that the majority of the market currently thinks there is (they might be right and they might be wrong).

[ArkyBeagle]

I rather doubt there's a bubble in US bonds. We've had "bond vigilante" cycles before. We're not in one now.

Unlike internet stocks or housing, one big factor in bond prices is confidence in the US as a political regime, which remains high.

My interpretation is that the bond market rolls its eyes at the posturing kerfluffle in our electoral politics and ignores it.

[mistermann]

Perhaps, but isn't it also true that the US government itself now constitutes a very large part of the bond market? Rarely do I ever hear the term bond vigilantes any more, maybe because there no longer is such a thing, except perhaps under extreme circumstances.

[ArkyBeagle]

I'm not 100% sure how to answer the first question. Yes, in a way, but those aren't tradable instruments any more - they're part of the Fed balance sheet. And technically, the Fed isn't government.

Yeah, I know....

This is the point - no more bond vigilantes as in days of yore. Bonds are smooth sailing on calm seas. This signals that everybody's on board with the low rates.

So this signals a lack of concern without deficits/debt.