[DenisM]

Lack of alternatives to a provably failed business model does not justify the embrace of that model. There is always another alternative - do something else.

At least they could try to build in some mitigation ahead of time. Like fat binaries, run-time version detection, app store that is friendly to mulitple versions of the app/os etc. Not sure if it would have worked, but not doing anything about it is plain insanity.

[netcan]

Would you really call it "provably failed," (especially considering that it's from the perspective of 2006-7) or are you just being provocative?

I agree that this seems like a problem, but surely Android has a decent chance of success under this model. Consider that people who need to run all the latest apps don't use 3 year old phones. In many places (like Australia where I live) you're not paying any extra to upgrade every two years. Google could introduce an Android X with no backwards compatibility without all that much fuss if necessary.

[DenisM]

I am absolutely serious. Hardware and software fragmentation proved near-fatal to old Palm, Windows Mobile and J2me.

The insidious part is that this business model results into hardware manfuacturers being disinterested in providing OS upgrade to old devices. Then a developer ends up supporting multiple versions of hardware/OS but given low software prices they don't have enough money to invest properly. A user then faces apps that are advertised as working on "Windows Mobile" but it turns out require touch-screen, different screen resolution or just crap out on latest OS, or demand the latest OS that user can not get without entering a new two-year contract. I personally stayed away from purchasing a $100 mobile app because I could not figure out device compatibility.

Been there, done that. It's a disaster.

Windows mobile had 100% YoY growth rate so at any point 50% of devices out there were new, and even that was not enough. Maybe if android grows 300% YoY they can make legacy redundant, but how long can this last?

But even then, as a developer I have established relationships with my customers, I can't just tell them to take a hike. If I do they will not advocate my product and I will lose the single most efficient marketing channel.

Bottom line is that upgrading OS to latest version should have been made a key design point form the start, both from the technical point and business-model point. Apple got it right, and as a developer I have 99.6% of my users using the latest major rev of the OS and 93% of my users using the latest minor rev.