[ams6110]

I think you underestimate how much people (at least 30 and older, but a good number under 30 also) like owning their own cars and driving them.

There is definitely some tunnel vision here. Not everyone lives in densely populated urban areas where owning a car is already almost not worth the cost and hassle.

I can't see myself ever owning or time-sharing a self-driving car.

[toddmorey]

That's why I think this new generation of transportation will be the first realistic challenge to car ownership. Think about it: virtually instant transportation, available on demand, and you can vary the vehicle based on your needs. Take a small car to Ikea and a truck back home. Take a large car out that evening with a group of friends. Shuttle systems that aggregate passengers (but still make custom stops) will drive the prices down further.

You don't have to drive (leaving you free to do other activities), and you don't have to park / store the vehicle. (Our last hotel charged $65 PER DAY for parking.) Under this new model, parking can quickly become the least productive land use and will start to get much more scarce.

Finally, you likely won't ever own or time-share a self-driving car. They'll be provided by the likes of Google or Uber or Tesla as a utility model.

Will people still drive for the joy of it? Absolutely, but it will become more of a hobby / specialty market, just like private piloting.

[robotresearcher]

> Not everyone lives in densely populated urban areas

But record numbers do, increasing every year particularly in Asia, where most people live.

Some people will always have personal cars, just like some people will always have personal horses. They are both sometimes practical and often fun, if expensive.

[thrownaway2424]

In America, nobody is going to stop you from doing whatever you want. But we'll probably stop subsidizing it pretty soon. Drivers will have to pay their own way, with all the current negative externalities internalized.

[Futurebot]

Sure, not everyone, but an ever-increasing number:

"In 1950, one-third of the world’s people lived in cities. Just 50 years later, this proportion has risen to one-half and will continue to grow to two-thirds, or 6 billion people, by 2050. Cities are now home to half of humankind."

http://www.un.org/en/globalissues/briefingpapers/cities/vita...

[dmd]

For the United States:

The urban areas of the United States for the 2010 Census contain 249,253,271 people, representing 80.7% of the population, and rural areas contain 59,492,276 people, or 19.3% of the population.

[mastre_]

> I think you underestimate how much people (at least 30 and older, but a good number under 30 also) like owning their own cars and driving them.

Do people like other things as well? Assuming you don't eat, use your laptop, watch a movie, read a book, or play video games currently while you drive, not having to drive so you can do these other things can be appealing. Especially when it's the same braindead commute to/from work every day, day after day.

[munificent]

I think you overestimate it:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonkblog/wp/2014/10/14/th...

[anirul]

Insurances are probably going to go up if you want to drive your own car. It is probably going to be unaffordable for almost everyone to own a car because of this!