[jameshart]

The problem with these kinds of arguments-from-probability is that they are valid arguments even in highly improbable universes. So yes, maybe on average, most sentient life forms that ponder these questions are living inside tiny simulated universes created as undergraduate term projects for passing credit. But we happen to be in a really big universe. Maybe ours is a grad student lab project. Or an exhibit in a museum. Or maybe we hit the jackpot and ours is real. Point of such arguments is you can't really tell from a sample size of one.